World Bank projects 23% commodity price rise

Global commodity prices are set to surge 23 per cent by late 2026 as conflicts, energy supply disruptions and uncertainty in agricultural markets drive up costs, the World Bank said in its ‘Commodity Markets Outlook’ released on Wednesday.

After three years of decline, energy prices could climb 32 percent amid conflict in West Asia, supply disruptions, and shrinking reserves. The World Bank said that oil supply could contract by 5.2 percent, marking the sharpest drop in four decades outside the 2020 recession.

Brent crude prices are projected to rise from $69 a barrel in 2025 to $91 by late 2026 before easing to $79 in 2027, increasing production, transport, industrial, and farm costs. Higher energy costs could raise fertiliser prices by 14 percent in 2026 before easing back to 2025 levels a year later, potentially reducing crop yields. 

Grain shipping disruptions, El Niño and rising input costs could lift food prices by 10 per cent in 2026 and 7 percent in 2027, hitting poor households hardest. 

The World Bank warned that renewed Black Sea disruptions or a severe El Niño could push extreme poverty to levels last seen in the early 2010s.

Warning of inflation, food insecurity, and growth pressures, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose urged aiding the poorest and debt-stressed low-income nations, with $50–60 billion for safety nets and farm capital and liquidity.

Source: bdnews24.com